← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 70% | 45% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.01 | value: +45% |
| Grosseto win | 11% | 26% | 8.97 | value: +136% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1360.26 | 1520.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.20 | -9.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.51 |
| state index | -1.48 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |