← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 43% | 30% | 2.10 | fair |
| Cesena win | 37% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 20% | 32% | 4.50 | value: +44% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 245.00 | 1615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1457.87 | 1462.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.04 | -17.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |