← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 62% | 51% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +8% |
| Ascoli win | 13% | 22% | 7.24 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 520.00 | 915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1515.29 | 1401.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.94 | -54.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |