← Serie B 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 83% | 73% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 20% | 7.85 | value: +54% |
| PRO Vercelli win | 4% | 8% | 22.20 | value: +73% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 914.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1628.40 | 1370.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.67 | -14.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 75.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.82 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |