← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 56% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 19% | 20% | 5.27 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1511.39 | 1434.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.48 | 12.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |