← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 40% | 36% | 2.41 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 39% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Ternana win | 21% | 27% | 4.62 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1608.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1465.14 | 1441.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.11 | 6.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |