← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| Spezia win | 30% | 34% | 3.29 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 56.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.96 | 1565.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.97 | 10.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |