← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 54% | 50% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +8% |
| Bari win | 20% | 20% | 4.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 1389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1642.36 | 1499.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.37 | 12.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 77.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |