← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Reggina win | 24% | 31% | 4.01 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 475.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.85 | 1446.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.27 | -12.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 48.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |