← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 41% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 28% | 36% | 3.47 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1425.08 | 1474.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.67 | -6.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |