← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.99 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 24% | 28% | 3.99 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1465.98 | 1458.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | -10.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |