← Serie B 2012-13 · Wed, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 39% | 32% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Novara win | 29% | 40% | 3.34 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1587.44 | 1607.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.51 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| league points | 70.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.64 |
| state index | 0.75 | 1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |