← Serie B 2012-13 · Tue, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.21 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 14% | 14% | 6.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 897.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1613.68 | 1418.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | -1.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 68.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |