← Serie B 2012-13 · Tue, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 56% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.76 | value: +6% |
| PRO Vercelli win | 18% | 19% | 5.34 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PRO Vercelli | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1373.02 | 1513.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.84 | -22.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |