← Serie B 2012-13 · Tue, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 71% | 51% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 28% | 4.75 | value: +31% |
| Grosseto win | 8% | 22% | 11.78 | value: +157% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 502.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.43 | 1376.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.17 | -33.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 50.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |