← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 37% | 2.86 | value: +5% |
| Reggina win | 28% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ternana | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1440.72 | 1465.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.21 | 17.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |