← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 63% | 66% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.94 | fair |
| Vicenza win | 12% | 12% | 7.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 163.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1602.94 | 1379.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.86 | -37.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 56.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.91 |
| state index | 1.38 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |