← Serie B 2012-13 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 35% | 31% | 2.81 | fair |
| Varese win | 33% | 38% | 2.97 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 647.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1437.40 | 1530.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.54 | -17.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 10.96 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.53 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |