← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 36% | 36% | 2.74 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 33% | 36% | 2.93 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1469.30 | 1480.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.67 | -13.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |