← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 58% | 44% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| Grosseto win | 15% | 29% | 6.34 | value: +82% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 42.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1405.24 | 1391.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.17 | -12.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |