← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 38% | 43% | 2.58 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1593.11 | 1647.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.55 | -1.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| league points | 53.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.15 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |