← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
| PRO Vercelli win | 21% | 18% | 4.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 36.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1448.65 | 1385.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.47 | 8.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |