← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 55% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Crotone win | 17% | 25% | 5.65 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1549.35 | 1458.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.58 | -23.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 56.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |