← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.47 | fair |
| Cesena win | 17% | 25% | 5.88 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 492.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1493.35 | 1481.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.01 | 26.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 46.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 9.96 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |