← Serie B 2012-13 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 47% | 40% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 23% | 31% | 4.28 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 883.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1450.13 | 1464.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.09 | -26.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 4.96 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |