← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Reggina win | 24% | 20% | 4.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1517.88 | 1468.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.43 | 28.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| league points | 49.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |