← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 38% | 31% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 35% | 2.96 | value: +5% |
| Ternana win | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ternana | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1434.73 | 1503.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.04 | 12.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.39 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |