← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 39% | 51% | 2.47 | value: +27% |
| PRO Vercelli win | 31% | 21% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PRO Vercelli | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1393.21 | 1541.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.82 | 16.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |