← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 50% | 46% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
| Modena win | 22% | 26% | 4.53 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1578.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1472.24 | 1456.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.12 | -27.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |