← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.22 | fair |
| Spezia win | 24% | 26% | 4.12 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 452.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1471.12 | 1384.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.26 | -19.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |