← Serie B 2012-13 · Thu, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 36% | 46% | 2.69 | value: +24% |
| Cittadella win | 33% | 26% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1422.47 | 1579.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.56 | 30.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 39.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |