← Serie B 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 56% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| Crotone win | 16% | 15% | 5.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 874.00 | 448.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1603.83 | 1476.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.22 | 3.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 60.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |