← Serie B 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 50% | 62% | 1.94 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.38 | fair |
| PRO Vercelli win | 21% | 16% | 4.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 29.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1402.99 | 1374.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |