← Serie B 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 57% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | value: +4% |
| Ternana win | 15% | 15% | 6.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 296.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1656.73 | 1427.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.84 | 0.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 71.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |