← Serie B 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 65% | 56% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.40 | value: +12% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 13% | 18% | 7.50 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 266.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.93 | 1468.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.30 | -11.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |