← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
| Modena win | 22% | 28% | 4.38 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 631.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1461.12 | 1444.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.13 | -48.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.58 | -1.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |