← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 36% | 33% | 2.60 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 33% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.95 | 1597.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.65 | 23.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 68.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.63 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |