← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 55% | 71% | 1.62 | value: +15% ⚠ |
| Nocerina win | 26% | 13% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Nocerina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1586.80 | 1426.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.95 | 22.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 80.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 0.98 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |