← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 56% | 26% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +14% |
| Padova win | 20% | 46% | 4.50 | value: +106% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.56 | 1492.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.43 | 5.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |