← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 74% | 48% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 28% | 5.50 | value: +55% |
| Grosseto win | 10% | 24% | 9.00 | value: +112% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 480.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1460.82 | 1441.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.30 | -18.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |