← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 65% | 57% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Gubbio win | 11% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +38% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Gubbio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1060.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1471.01 | 1369.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.92 | -40.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| state index | -1.05 | -1.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |