← Serie B 2011-12 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 67% | 44% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 31% | 4.33 | value: +34% |
| Reggina win | 11% | 25% | 9.50 | value: +133% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 597.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1568.54 | 1503.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.50 | -27.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 74.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |