← Serie B 2011-12 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 40% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +15% |
| Pescara win | 33% | 20% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 201.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1617.52 | 1567.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.29 | 23.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 67.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.93 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |