← Serie B 2011-12 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 36% | 45% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| Nocerina win | 34% | 30% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nocerina | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1406.94 | 1504.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.09 | -41.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |