← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 44% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Varese win | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 565.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1552.63 | 1579.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.89 | 14.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 74.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |