← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 53% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Livorno win | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1591.01 | 1416.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 73.63 | -31.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 77.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.54 | -1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |