← Serie B 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 44% | 37% | 2.10 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 29% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1577.74 | 1597.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.01 | 29.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 74.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 2.00 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |