← Serie B 2011-12 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 42% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Brescia win | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1045.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1488.82 | 1514.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.51 | -39.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 52.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |