← Serie B 2011-12 · Tue, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 60% | 35% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +7% |
| Albinoleffe win | 16% | 36% | 6.50 | value: +137% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Albinoleffe | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1320.10 | 1432.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.06 | -8.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.66 | 1.03 |
| state index | -2.25 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |