← Serie B 2011-12 · Mon, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 57% | 45% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
| Padova win | 17% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +45% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 311.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.56 | 1504.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.20 | -47.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 73.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.58 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |